Market Update with Avi Gilburt (2024)

Just Meandering Now - Market Analysis for Aug 27th, 2024

As I have been outlining over the past several days, the SPX is still coloring between the lines, and not confirming whether the 4th wave has indeed completed. And, at this point in time, if it has not completed, then we have moved into a much more complex w-x-y pattern. Now, of course, if we take out yesterday’s high, then I believe it confirms the ending diagonal path in wave 5. However, as long as we remain below the high struck yesterday, then the more complex structure for wave 4 remains alive and well.When we look over at the NQ, we have a minimum number of waves in place to consider its wave 4 complete.

by Avi Gilburt - 3 days ago

Is 4 Done?

Over the weekend, I was questioning whether wave 4 was done on the 5-minute SPX chart. And, based upon today’s action, I am leaning towards it not being done.Most specifically, today’s we topped out on what seems to be a 3-wave rally. So, I am viewing that as the b-wave of wave 4. We have since seen what looks like a 5-wave decline in the SPX off the high. Therefore, I have to assume that we have begun the c-wave down. At the time of my writing this, I don’t think I have enough information to determine how deep this c-wave will take us.

by Avi Gilburt - 4 days ago

Market Finally Breaks Upper Support

After trading in a very tight range all week we finally saw the market break the upper support zone giving us the initial signal that we have put in at least a local top the third wave. We are still trading over the support for the potential fourth wave.So we will need to see how the market reacts over the course of the next several trading sessions in regards to both price and structure to help guide us as to whether we are going to see this push higher once again before any significant top is seen or if the market has other intentions to see a larger degree top sooner rather than later.

by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Not Much To Add

I wish I had some amazing insights to provide to you beyond what we have been saying of late, but I think that anyone who has been following along for the last few weeks/months is probably as informed about where we are as I. But, I will do a quick review.The most important thing that happened this past week is the potential for NEM/GDX to be filling out their next 5-wave rally structure, which would mean that there are no larger 2nd waves yet to complete – assuming we complete the 4th and 5th waves as presented on the various charts.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Market Sees Another Tight Range While Holding Over Support

Today we saw the market move slightly over the previous high only to be quickly rejected lower. That move lower however did not last long either and we spent the rest of the day consolidating near the highs but over support. So with the market trading in a very tight range and still over even upper support at the time of this writing the parameters that I have laid out over the past several days remain for the most part the same.As I noted yesterday we are still very overbought on the smaller timeframes and a pullback for at least a fourth wave should certainly be in the cards in the not-too-distant future.

by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Market Grinds Sideways As Support Has Yet To Break

Today we saw the market open flat and then move slightly lower. That move lower did however hold over even the uppermost support and then we continued to grind sideways through the rest of the day.That initial move lower is also counting better as three waves rather than five waves. So with the hold over support and an initial five wave move to the downside we still do not have any confirmation that we have indeed put in a larger degree top just yet.We are still very overbought on the smaller timeframes and a pullback for at least a fourth wave should certainly be in the cards in the not-too-distant future.

by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Market Still Grinding Higher Over Support

Today we saw the market open higher and continue to push higher into the end of the day. At the time of this writing, we are closing in on the 161.8ext of the wave 1 of larger (c) off of the 8/7 low. Furthermore, we are still over even the uppermost micro support level and the pattern for the wave (c) still would look much better with another fourth and fifth wave to give us a more complete and standard pattern.

by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Market Analysis for Aug 16th, 2024

While I am not yet convinced the break out has begun in GDX/NEM and gold, I wanted to post something quickly on silver.We are now at an 1.00 extension off the recent lows. So, I wanted to warn all those that have shorter term positions in silver to place their stops at the bottom of the pivot box below us. This is a very important resistance we are at now, which can present us with an a-b-c corrective rally right to the 1.00 extension at which it would be an a-b-c rally. It is for this reason I think you should tighten your stops until we are able to blow through it.

by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Reasonable To Expect A Pullback Now

The market indeed rallied to our next target as expected, but we have now even exceeded that target within this wave v of 3. But, since I must be able to count to 5 in order to maintain my employment at Elliottwavetrader, I do understand that 4 usually comes after 3. And, with the manner in which we have already extended in this wave 3, I think it is quite reasonable to expect to see a wave 4 pullback quite soon.Normally, a 4th wave pullback will take us back to the 1.00 extension of waves 1-2. However, when wave 3 extensions, we may even see the 1.236 extension of waves 1-2 act as our support for wave 4. Moreover, we also use the .

by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Varying Degree Of Wave Counts

At this point in time, I cannot say that I am seeing a clear alignment in the various wave counts I am tracking across the charts.For example, the primary count in silver seems to be completing a [1][2] structure within wave i of wave 3. As you can see on the attached 8-minute chart, it has been following the parameters have been setting quite well. And, as I am writing this update, it has either completed its c-wave of wave [2], or may just have one more squiggle lower to complete.

by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

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